(12-03-2020, 01:39 PM)Mavsfan12 Wrote: Are you saying you don't believe in KP's ability? Or Health? Because, if healthy, there aren't many players we can get that would be better than him. It is ok to doubt whether he is a "stable" horse that you can count on.
I've been talking about this for months, but I'll state my concerns again, as clearly as I can.
KP's health is a concern, for sure, but not the main one, for me. Now, to be clear, he hasn't played very much over the last three years (developmentally, very important years), so it's possible that this is contributing to my thinking about him relative to what IS my concern, but that concern is NOT directly related to his health. I trust the Mavs enough to believe they took a reasonably safe risk on him, health-wise.
My main concern is that, to this point, I have seen no evidence that KP is able to be used here in such a way that he can positively influence the game with the ball in his hands.
That's what you should get for "max" money, imo, especially when you're talking about the 1st or 2nd max guy. He's a GREAT player to have, but so far, his offensive contributions, while effective, have been completely dependent on a ball-handler to have any impact.
Here's how we've seen him used here, so far:
What's missing? Any kind of offensive action that is run THROUGH him. During Dirk's time in Dallas, we saw the evolution from his early years, during which it was clear they had half a mind to try to make him a point-forward (didn't work out) all the way to 2011, when there were at least 4-5 spots on the floor where you could throw him the ball and let him go to work. Go rewatch those games, and even you, a Dallas fan who probably LOVED him, will be surprised at just how many low post possessions Dirk got that season. And, we all remember his high post, elbow iso game, as well as the countless possessions where he would catch it above the free throw line where it was almost impossible for the opposing team to double him. The only thing Dirk never quite mastered was passing. He became a good enough passer, but never reached Dunan's level with that. But, he COULD impact the game in a profound way with the ball in his hands.
Think of how Jokic plays in Dever, or Adabayo, in Miami. AD in LA. THOSE guys are max contract bigs, imo. All of them handle the ball A LOT, and to the great benefit of their teams. They are play finishers, but just as likely to be play initiators.
In NY, the plan was to make Porzingis a post player, like 2011 Dirk. We know Carlisle doesn't share that vision, which is fine. But, imo, they had better figure out SOMETHING if he's really supposed to be the 2nd best player on this team. Imagine a signifiant stretch of time when KP is healthy, but Luka isn't. DISASTER. If your entire season rests on the availability of ONE player, then I offer the suggestion that you might not actually have the right 2nd guy in place.
Now, again...maybe Carlisle has a plan for KP that will completely change my tune on all of the above, and if so, GREAT. Like I keep saying, I just haven't seen it yet.
This post doesn't even address the defensive end, where I believe Porzingis is very useful, but definitely not a game changer, and will require more and more creative work-arounds as he ages.
And, once again, I like the player. I'm glad he's here. I would've made the trade, and I probably would've offered the same extension the Mavs did. If he's your 3rd guy, all of the concerns I have go away, and the "limited" skills I listed above become LUXURY to an insane level. But, if this team doesn't have another guy on this roster who can pressure the defense with the ball in his hands before Luka's extension kicks in at the end of next summer, I think there's a very good chance that we'll look back at KP's contract like it was a mistake. That extension effectively put an end date on the "flexible team building" portion of Luka's career.
Just how I see it. People are free to disagree.
- As an off-ball floor spacer, he's probably the best in the league, due to his size and high release point. The size is germane in two ways, one, because he requires less space to be able to get the shot off and two, because it likely means that he's matched up with an opposing player who Dallas would very much like to have as far away from the basket as possible, freeing valuable space for Luka and others. This is valuable, FOR SURE, but at MAX MONEY? In a vacuum, is what KP gives you in this area really that much more valuable than what you get from Kleber, Bertans, Ibaka, PJ Tucker, etc? If this is the BEST thing he brings to the table, and the skill that's most often used, I say no.
- As a pick and roll diver or an off ball cutter, moving downhill towards the rim, he's quite valuable. He has good hands, maybe not the best, but definitely good enough, and he converts efficiently. He's NOT as good as Powell (or many others) here, due mostly, imo, because he doesn't seem to handle the short roll effectively enough. He simply doesn't have that one dribble pull up or two dribble drive off of the short roll locked completely in his tool belt, imo, and without those, passing out of it becomes a moot point. He has the skill to grow here, I think, but I haven't seen it yet, and if some people around here are correct about Powell being very much in the plans moving forward, I'm not sure when we'll even see him get the opportunity to grow in this way. Still, what he has established here is worthy of being listed in his skill profile.
- As a pick and pop, designed spot shooter, he's not Dirk yet, but I can see this being the most likely element that gets added in the near future. Again, however, see my question about Powell. For me to buy into this, I have to know whether the Mavs believe in it enough to go all-in on it. Even if they do, I haven't seen much evidence that he can learn to be effective riffing off of it. He has this rep for being able to floor the ball, but...I'm not seeing it. Can he dribble? Yes. Can he pump fake and then attack a close out with an aggressive, direction changing drive to the rim, or variety of tried and true 1-2 dribble solutions to get a better jumper off? If so, I don't think we've seen it in Dallas yet. I'm worried.
(12-03-2020, 01:53 PM)Jym Wrote: I feel like we're screwed if KP isn't that
You being so apprehensive to add long-term salary the past year makes a little more sense but then I don't get why you haven't pushed harder to trade KP for an upgrade
Because until Luka signs his extension, we're still living in a world where anything is possible.
I don't mind an overpaid KP as a 3rd guy at all. Love him for that, in fact.
And, to be clear, I don't need that 2nd guy to be better than him right away, especially not status wise. A young guy with an obvious ball-handling fit here and the potential to be the 2nd guy is enough to move forward, imo.
If they don't get that guy (before Luka's extension), I probably WILL be the leader of team "trade Porzingis" as at that point, I believe that will be the only way forward.