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HOLY KRISTAPS: All Things Porzingis
https://twitter.com/MFollowill/status/13...9463368705


Rough start shooting 34%/37%/50%....yikes.


(01-16-2021, 08:13 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Rough start shooting 34%/31%/50%....yikes.

I don't see the use of scaling up the results of very few repetitions to per one hundred rates.  

The whole purpose of these stats on percentages is to have a tool at hand to estimate what to expect next. For example if KP had hit 500 of his 1000 free throws, he'd still be around that ratio whether he hits the next one or not, and you'd expect him to continue hitting around that rate because you have a large enough sample size. Percentages work best when you scale down larger (bigger than 100) numbers.

KP hit 1 of his 2 free throws in two games. Scaling that rate up to 100 doesn't really mean much, because it doesn't make you expect him to shoot 50% going forward. It's just a single missed free throw. 

Nevertheless, he is 37.5% from three (6/16 [4/9 + 2/7]) in two games. He should have missed one more to go down to 31.25%. Had he hit one more instead, his 3PT% would have been 43.75%!
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Zinger is overrated on offense, where he’s typically below average in the all important true and effective field goal percentage categories. If he wants to become as good as a lot of people think he is, he’ll need to substantially improve on his career shooting percentages and become much more efficient. Otherwise, his game will basically remain an optical illusion. He seemed to have turned the corner at the end of last season and in the bubble, so I have some optimism. But it’s not that common for inefficient players to become efficient, so his work is cut out for him.


(01-16-2021, 08:58 AM)pompelmo Wrote: I don't see the use of scaling up the results of very few repetitions to per one hundred rates.  

The whole purpose of these stats on percentages is to have a tool at hand to estimate what to expect next. For example if KP had hit 500 of his 1000 free throws, he'd still be around that ratio whether he hits the next one or not, and you'd expect him to continue hitting around that rate because you have a large enough sample size. Percentages work best when you scale down larger (bigger than 100) numbers.

KP hit 1 of his 2 free throws in two games. Scaling that rate up to 100 doesn't really mean much, because it doesn't make you expect him to shoot 50% going forward. It's just a single missed free throw. 

Nevertheless, he is 37.5% from three (6/16 [4/9 + 2/7]) in two games. He should have missed one more to go down to 31.25%. Had he hit one more instead, his 3PT% would have been 43.75%!
Judging KP and Luka by the first two games that they've played this season we easly have the 2 most overrated players in the league and are gifting NYK a top5 pick!!!!!!


(01-16-2021, 08:58 AM)pompelmo Wrote: I don't see the use of scaling up the results of very few repetitions to per one hundred rates.  


Dude, all I was observing was that he isn't shooting well to start. If you think 12-35 shooting to start is good I don't know what to tell you. It's a rough start. That is all. No doom and gloom. No cliff jumping. Rough start.


(01-16-2021, 02:22 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Dude, all I was observing was that he isn't shooting well to start. If you think 12-35 shooting to start is good I don't know what to tell you. It's a rough start. That is all. No doom and gloom. No cliff jumping. Rough start.
 
Well, I am telling you that your observation is wrong, because your angle is wrong. 

First, the number you provided about his 3PT% is wrong. 

Second, a single make or miss doesn't make the difference between a terrible performance and an excellent one. Had he made one more free throw, his FT% would have been 100%. Had he hit one more three, his 3PT% would have been 43.75%. 

Third, if KP was tasked to work inside, it would have made the paint too crowded for Luka whom then would have been forced to jack up threes which he shoots at a rate of 19/73 (26%). Ouch. Now that's rough. 

Fielded alongside another center who plays closer to the rim and a primary option who is his best when inside the paint, KP is a maximum salary paid scorer tasked to stretch the floor for Luka and he gets higher difficulty shots available for him. If efg%  was that important, Dwight Powell should have earned that max. 

... And he just played his second game back. He shot 6/19. So what? Luka was 7/20 the other day with 6 turnovers and he was nominated for a Dirkie.


1) Yes, I made a mistake in my reading of a chart and put his 2PT% in his 3PT%. 

2) My observation is NOT wrong. He is struggling shooting to start. 

3) You are jumping to ALL sorts of conclusions that I NEVER even began to say. 

4) Don't be a jerk. Show respect in how you communicate please. It is the number one rule of this forum.


Well, let's say I don't share your concern on his 1/2 free throw shooting in two games. Not going to the line enough? That might be a concern.

I thought I presented my point of view in a blunt but proper manner. Sorry if I offended you.


(01-16-2021, 03:29 PM)Kammrath Wrote: My observation is NOT wrong. He is struggling shooting to start. 


All he's saying is that it's too early to make any observation on his shooting, just by the nature of how counting statistics work. We can't confidently say that KP will have a bad shooting game tomorrow based on his previous 2 with any sort of accuracy. Further, KP was 6/13 (4/8 from 3) before a 3 minute 4th quarter where he missed 2 mid range jumpers and a 3 against CHA. I didn't think he shot bad at all against Charlotte. I did think he had a bad shooting night last night. 

Would we be saying KP is shooting rough if he had made 1 more 3 and didn't miss his FT and his stat line would be 37/46/100? 

It's the same thought process why most of us weren't really that worried when Luka started the season off 2/21 from 3 in the first 4 games. Rough start for sure but he isn't a 9.5% 3pt shooter. It's also the same reason that Dan touts patience for Powell. 

BUT there has been evidence from last year that it takes KP a while (give or take a month) to get back into form coming off a knee injury, which means I'm not surprised he isn't a bastion of efficiency, and he'll probably have more 6/19 games from here on out.
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14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.


(01-16-2021, 03:39 PM)pompelmo Wrote: Well, let's say I don't share your concern on his 1/2 free throw shooting in two games. Not going to the line enough? That might be a concern.

I thought I presented my point of view in a blunt but proper manner. Sorry if I offended you.


I didn't say I was concerned. I just said he isn't shooting well...and I put a "yikes" because the numbers (other than 3s) are not pretty to me. I fully expect him to turn it around. I think he is an incredible talent. I think he is a max player. I think he is a two-way impact player. I love KP and love his fit in DAL. I just think his shooting start isn't pretty. That is all.

I am not offended. And the fact that you are talking to me that way, doesn't really bother me. But I would ask that you do not talk that way to other posters. We have worked hard to have this place be a place of civility and respect (something very hard to find on the internet these days). I welcome your contributions, just please do two things 1) don't assume a poster is saying something unless they actually say that thing and 2) give posters the benefit of the doubt and do not assume the worst about what they might be saying. 

Anyways, thanks for understanding and I look forward to seeing more of your contributions.


The thing I don't understand is why he feels he has to press it if he has limited minutes. That is just fundamentally wrong. Shooting every ball he got like it is his last game...


(01-16-2021, 03:42 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: All he's saying is that it's too early to make any observation on his shooting


I 100% get what @pompelmo is saying and actually agree with him. But I wasn't saying what he was thinking I was saying. I was doing/saying nothing other than making an observation on a two game sample size. I wasn't doing anything else and wasn't drawing any conclusions other than the obvious simple one. The numbers are true for those two games (other than my mistake) and they aren't very good. That's all. Nothing to panic on, just an observation on the data we have. To his larger points, I agree.
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(01-16-2021, 03:48 PM)omahen Wrote: The thing I don't understand is why he feels he has to press it if he has limited minutes. That is just fundamentally wrong.


My question too. 

1) Is he thinking the team NEEDS his offensive output and so he is trying to make an impact in the limited minutes he thinks he will get?

2) Is he stat hunting for himself? 

I hope it is number one. But I do not like his approach these first two games regardless.
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(01-16-2021, 03:51 PM)Kammrath Wrote: My question too. 

1) Is he thinking the team NEEDS his offensive output and so he is trying to make an impact in the limited minutes he thinks he will get?

2) Is he stat hunting for himself? 

I hope it is number one. But I do not like his approach these first two games regardless.

It's the first point. I'ts the same thing that happened in the beginning of the last season. He actually started the season pretty good, scoring 23,24,32 points. Then his numbers suffered when Powell was inserted to the line up. When he touches the ball less and feels he will get limited opportunities, he tries to make most out of it, which is the opposite of letting the game come to him. That messes with his rhythm. Luka avoiding him when he is available and trying to get Wes Iwundu going instead also doesn't help.

The end result of the game was acceptable last night, however the way it ended made me uncomfortable and I am still feeling it. Luka publicly questioning Rick, then KP pointing fingers makes me feel there is some growing tension. It makes me uneasy.
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(01-16-2021, 04:08 PM)pompelmo Wrote: It's the first point. I'ts the same thing that happened in the beginning of the last season. He actually started the season pretty good, scoring 23,24,32 points. Then his numbers suffered when Powell was inserted to the line up. When he touches the ball less and feels he will get limited opportunities, he tries to make most out of it, which is the opposite of letting the game come to him. That messes with his rhythm. Luka avoiding him when he is available and trying to get Wes Iwundu going instead also doesn't help.

The end result of the game was acceptable last night, however the way it ended made me uncomfortable and I am still feeling it. Luka publicly questioning Rick, then KP pointing fingers makes me feel there is some growing tension. It makes me uneasy.


Good thoughts.


(01-16-2021, 04:08 PM)pompelmo Wrote: Luka publicly questioning Rick,


This is so overblown... Luka was pissed and emotions were high in a tight game. That was it, already finished. Water under the bridge. How many times have I seen best friends yelling at eachother on the court... I think Luka statement after the game completely proves that. Carlisle is a grown man and Luka is a smart guy so I have no doubt they talked about it.
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(01-16-2021, 04:23 PM)omahen Wrote: This is so overblown... Luka was pissed and emotions were high in a tight game. That was it, already finished. Water under the bridge.


I can agree with that....

....as long as you agree that Luka's weight was not overblown....or well, the weight WAS overblown but his weight issues were not. Wink

[Image: 0edd53dd2110147b786329c2e24fb1d0.gif]
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I remember a very similar instance last season (or perhaps 2 seasons ago?). Mavs were down one possesion and opponent missed free throw with some 8 seconds to go. Luka expected timeout and got really confused because Carlisle didn't call it. End result was some forced three from almost midcourt or something like that. You have to know, that European coach would ALWAYS call a timeout in such a situation. So Luka expects a timeout because he grew up in that basketball school, it is his instinct. Thats why he was not prepared for play continuation and thats why the play was broken with him waiting for the timeout. From his perspective, the way he was taught, not calling a timeout was a mistake.


(01-16-2021, 04:23 PM)omahen Wrote: This is so overblown... Luka was pissed and emotions were high in a tight game. That was it, already finished. Water under the bridge. How many times have I seen best friends yelling at each other on the court... I think Luka statement after the game completely proves that. Carlisle is a grown man and Luka is a smart guy so I have no doubt they talked about it.

I think Luka, who has been in a professional environment since his puberty, would know this is a bad look. He let the public know that he doesn't agree with the coach. I always admired Luka's maturity and well thought interviews. This action was definitely not in line with that perception. 

I saw him animated against the bench two times before:
1) When Dennis broke the play and used the possession himself. He was right.
2) He didn't want to come out, then came out anyway grudgingly, which was childishly cute.

This one took long and was disrespectful.


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